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A Brief History Of Tax Cuts – Historical Note For nearly a hundred years, tax cuts have been a centerpiece of political strife among politicians, with both parties at times lobbying for lower tax rates. An accepted belief has been that lower taxes widen the Federal deficit and provide no economic expansion. Contrary to this belief, prior tax cuts enacted by various presidential administrations actually yielded economic growth and higher revenues for the Federal Government. During the 1920’s, tax rates were lowered from over 70% to less than 25%, resulting in an increase in tax revenue from $719 million in 1921 to over $1.1 billion in 1928. Following the dramatic tax increases during the 1930’s imposed by President Hoover and Presiden...

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For nearly a hundred years, tax cuts have been a centerpiece of political strife among politicians, with both parties at times lobbying for lower tax rates.

An accepted belief has been that lower taxes widen the Federal deficit and provide no economic expansion. Contrary to this belief, prior tax cuts enacted by various presidential administrations actually yielded economic growth and higher revenues for the Federal Government.

During the 1920’s, tax rates were lowered from over 70% to less than 25%, resulting in an increase in tax revenue from $719 million in 1921 to over $1.1 billion in 1928.

Following the dramatic tax increases during the 1930’s imposed by President Hoover and President Roosevelt, Democratic President John...

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Macro Overview

A change in sentiment was prevalent throughout the markets as new rules and regulatory reversals began to take effect. Volatility rose as markets tried to discern President Trump’s policies.

Equity markets propelled to new highs in January as optimism fueled U.S. equities, sending the Dow Jones Industrial Average to a new milestone level of 20,000. The S&P 500 Index and the Nasdaq Composite Index also reached new highs during the month.

Executive orders undertaken by the President were able to derail several rules signed into law by the Obama administration, yet fiscal policy initiatives proposed by President Trump such as tax cuts and tax reform need Congressional approval. The Congressional Review Act (CRA) will al...

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Newsletter

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The first week of 2016 started with a big move down in equity prices as a result of geopolitical events in emerging markets and fears of slowing economies worldwide. However, these and other reasons ignor the larger trends influencing markets today.

Understanding today’s market-moves requires the study of market history and secular trends that dominate market direction. Most investors are unaware of secular bull and bear markets that control long-term direction of markets for significate periods of time.

Let’s review the last century of stock market cycles. Classifying bull markets and bear markets is necessary to understand their impact on short-term trends. I define secular bull markets as extended periods or years when the...

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Price to Free Cash Flow Investment Model Empirical Data: 1950-2009

The GeaSphere Price to Free Cash Flow (PFCF) research study is the foundation of our stock picking philosophy.

Our GeaSphere (PFCF) Dow Portfolio was vigorously back tested from the years 1950 to 2009 by exclusively using the stocks in the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) that met our proprietary free cash flow philosophy.

We invested $10,000 in two separate portfolios, where one represented the entire Dow Jones (DJIA) and the other represented only the stocks in the Dow Jones (DJIA) that met our strict GeaSphere (PFCF) criteria.

Using standard back testing methods, we purchased each portfolio on the first trading day of each year and sold the entire portfolio on the l...

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The secular bull market is back after 14 long years of ups and downs and zero returns to show for it. Most bull and bear markets typically last 16.5 years on average. If you are an investor with assets of 500,000 and more to invest, call me for a conversation, and I will make the case for why the bull market is back and how we will position our clients to profit from this new opportunity.

Eduard Hamamjian
401-351-4900